Always Bet On Black?

The United States will elect a new President in 3 weeks and I couldn't be more excited... and terrified. This is a watershed moment in the history of our planet as Barack Obama, if you believe the polls, is a hairs breadth from the Oval Office. And that's the rub isn't it? When whitey is in the polling booth will he actually bet on black?

Americans call this the Bradley Effect. This is in reference to the failed 1982 California Gubernatorial bid of Tom Bradley, an African American, in spite of having a significant lead in the polls just prior to election day. I prefer to term it as the Spiral of Silence. The theory holds that white voters, not wanting to seem racially motivated, will often mask their true voting preferences so they can avoid unwanted criticism.

In reference to the Tom Bradley case, several polls from prominent California media outlets projected Bradley as the winner. In fact, early editions of the next day's San Fransisco Chronicle featured a headline proclaiming "Bradley Win Projected." However, Bradley narrowly lost the race. Post-election research indicated that a smaller percentage of white voters actually voted for Bradley than polls had predicted. Will history repeat itself 26 years later?

Depending on which poll you look at, Obama has anywhere from a 6 to as much as a 14 point lead in the polls. Considering these numbers it might be safe to assume that Barack can absorb any social desirability bias on behalf of dishonest voters, yet i still fear the worst.

America's very soul is at stake with this election. Alarmist hyperbole you say? Not really if you consider the options. With Obama you have an Ivy League educated Civil Rights attorney who seems to have a genuine concern for the welfare of all Earth's citizens, not just Americans. In the other corner you have an erratic octogenarian with a heart full of malice and an Evangelical mental midget for a running mate. The choice seems clear but if you waiver at the polls and vote McCain, just how deep does your hatred run?

The world is watching America.